The Opposition’s plans of bringing together disparate parties onto a common national platform ahead of the 2024 elections received a jolt of sorts last week from Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik. The mercurial politician who is also one of India’s longest-serving chief ministers said that as far as he was concerned, there was no possibility of an Opposition third front and that his Biju Janata Dal was likely to go it alone in the 2024 elections. Of course, Mr Patnaik’s stance is driven by a unique set of factors, having been the most successful fence-sitter in the current political context, working with the government on a number of occasions and maintaining channels of communication with both sides. 2024 is also when Odisha goes to the polls, and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is gunning to expand its footprint in the coastal state. With no strong second-rung leadership in place, the BJD continues to rely on the popularity and grassroots appeal of its senior most leader. Mr Patnaik has also never signalled having strident national ambitions, unlike some of the other proponents of the third front. Nevertheless, the strong words from the veteran leader underlined some of the hurdles that the Opposition’s endeavour to build a common platform faces, especially in attracting faces that are not vehemently opposed to the BJP ideologically or electorally.
The logic of a third front emanated from the Congress’s atrophying strength and a hardening belief among sections of regional parties that they were better taking on the BJP on their own strengths than wait for the national opposition party to put its house in order. Can the Congress’s impressive victory in the Karnataka elections undo some of that impression and convince other opposition leaders that the Congress is still the best bet to take on the BJP? The developments in one state is too little to make up a political trend, but if the Congress can follow up its disciplined performance in the southern province with similar campaigns in the heartland states and Telangana later this year, then it would have made the case for becoming the pole around which national opposition strategies coalesce.
This newspaper has noted that despite the euphoria of the Karnataka win, the Opposition has a sobering and uphill road before it can put up a credible challenge to the BJP in 2024. But before that, expect a lot of churn in the Opposition space as parties and personalities with rivalling ambitions and ideologies clash. Mr Patnaik’s statement was the first sign of this impending ferment.
