Preparing for a warmer world

The C3S 2023 climate report highlighted some weather extremes throughout the last year, as record after record fell. From heatwaves to floods, droughts and wildfires, several extreme weather events provided testimony to how far humanity has come from the climate “civilisation developed in”, C3S director Carlo Buontempo said. And yet, even as human and economic losses mount, carbon dioxide and methane gas concentrations rose to their highest levels. Further endangering planetary systems was the low sea ice extent in the Arctic and the Antarctic, and the numerous marine heatwaves that added to the rising temperatures in an El Niño year. That it did not breach the 1.5°C mark — on the yet-to-be-released Berkeley Earth dataset the year is likely to be at least 1.5°C warmer than the pre-industrial average — is a matter of little consolation as experts are predicting that at least one year between 2023 and 2030 will cross the threshold.

Is humanity prepared to arrest the temperature rise or deal with the weather extremes it will bring about? For the former, the only way forward is to cut emissions, urgently and drastically. The COP28 agreement has lent some hope on that front. For the latter, governments must identify vulnerable regions and populations, redesign cities, rethink laws, and draft adaptation plans. Whether it is new infrastructure to reduce the impact of heatwaves, relocating communities at risk from sea level rise, or revisiting the urban drainage systems to contain flooding from extreme rainfall, they have to start work now. It may already be too late.