Dec 09, 2024 08:29 PM IST
Syria’s Baathist regime has fallen, leading to a power shift favoring rebels aligned with HTS, raising concerns over stability and regional implications.
The Arab Spring found its moment in Syria a decade and half after it had bloomed (and died) on Sunday when the Baathist regime fell and President Bashar al-Assad fled Damascus with his family to Moscow, where they were granted asylum. And whether it is really a spring is to be tested — the rebels who control Damascus now are aligned to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist outfit of radicals. They have been fighting the Assad regime in the Syrian civil war that ravaged the West Asian country from 2011 onwards.
The geopolitical implications of this regime change are significant. One, it marks the end of a five-decade authoritarian rule by the Assad family. Two, it signifies a shift in power balance in the region. The Assad regime was aligned to Russia and Iran: Its fall suggests that Moscow and Tehran have lost the game this time to the US and its allies; Turkey, which backed the rebels, seems to be in the driving seat. Three, the Assad administration was the last of the secular regimes in the region. HTS has its roots in al Qaeda although it parted ways with the latter some time ago. Unlike al Qaeda, HTS has claimed it is not interested in any global jihad and said that it is committed to the protection of religious and ethnic minorities and gender rights. These claims will be tested when HTS settles down in office. Four, HTS, a predominantly Sunni outfit, is committed to Palestine though opposed to Tehran. Its rise may have a ripple effect in the neighbourhood, including Saudi Arabia and the various emirates, which have been slowly and cautiously liberalising their societies.
The transition from one regime to another is a complex and risky process as evident from the experience of Iraq and Afghanistan. The Assad regime, very much like Saddam Hussain in Iraq, held together a country that was born in the ruins of the Ottoman Empire after the first World War. The new regime will need to negotiate the different fault lines and arrive at a federal arrangement to avoid the outbreak of sectarian violence. An unstable Syria will compound the tensions in a region already consumed by the Gaza war and other conflicts.
For India, the Assad regime was a friend: Damascus was consistent in its support of the Indian stance on Kashmir in international fora. Delhi has rightly been cautious in responding to the changes in Damascus. Sanctions had crippled bilateral trade. Hopefully, the new regime will stabilise Syria and facilitate the rebuilding of the nation. Delhi needs to ride out this tricky phase carefully.
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