Everybody loves the other backward classes (OBCs). That is the message emerging from at least the three Hindi heartland states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh (MP) and Chhattisgarh, which go to polls in November. Both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress, the two dominant parties in all three states, have been highlighting their commitment to OBC interests in their campaign rallies. This is understandable since the OBC bloc, as per government surveys, is estimated to constitute 42% of the population in Rajasthan, 48% in Madhya Pradesh and 43.5% in Chhattisgarh. The emergence of OBC interests as an election issue in these states may have more to do with the INDIA bloc’s call for a caste census. The Congress, which has become vociferous in championing a caste census and OBC interests, hopes this will help the party fragment the rainbow Hindu coalition the BJP has created nationally. How the OBC narrative plays out in these elections will influence the electoral strategies of the BJP and the Congress in the 2024 general election.
Ironically, OBC (or Mandal) politics has been a minor political strand in Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh so far. Unlike Uttar Pradesh (UP), Bihar and Haryana in the north, politics in Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh has been indifferent to Mandal and has revolved around the governance narrative preferred by the Congress and the BJP. One reason for this could be the Lohiaite socialist tradition, which consolidated the OBC identity in UP and Bihar and championed its empowerment historically, had limited influence in central India. The Congress and BJP, though deeply invested in patronage politics at the grassroots, refused to foreground caste as an ideological issue, although that’s beginning to change. In the absence of a politics that framed caste as a political category, the Congress and BJP, in office, had turned to welfarism. Recently, this has taken on caste hues. For instance, Rajasthan has eight welfare boards for OBC groups whereas MP has nine and Chhattisgarh four. The three chief ministers (CMs) have also been flaunting their OBC identities, hinting at the potential of caste to trump class and faith and reconfigure political loyalties.
The big question is if OBC empowerment will become the overriding issue and relegate the welfare politics that CMs Bhupesh Baghel, Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Ashok Gehlot have patronised all this while to the sidelines. These elections will be keenly watched.
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