L’ Affaire NCP shows yet again that politics in India is rapidly degenerating into a purely mathematical exercise. It also demonstrates the cynical use of enforcement agencies to achieve political ends — for nothing else can explain why charges are (as they have been in the past) dropped against politicians joining the national political hegemon. It is worth repeating both, because these often tend to get lost in the narrative — and both lie at the core of democracy and the democratic process.
Ajit Pawar’s alignment with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) — along with many senior Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) leaders — was always considered a matter of “when”, not “if”, and while it still took everyone by surprise when it happened on Sunday, there is a larger message in it that has been drowned out over the past few months — perhaps by the drumbeat surrounding the work-in-progress united opposition. On June 10, this newspaper reported that the BJP, with an eye on the 2024 national election, was reaching out to past allies and potential ones, seeking to rebuild the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). This should be easy for a party that has considerable resources at its disposal, and also a fine understanding of incentives and penalties. Indeed, with a cabinet reshuffle (largely necessitated by an organisational one that is imperative ahead of this year’s state elections and next year’s national election) imminent, it can offer those who sign on, instant gratification.
There’s already talk of the Telugu Desam Party and the Shiromani Akali Dal, both previously part of the NDA, returning to the fold. And there is buzz that a few other regional parties may well choose to ally with the BJP.
Allies will be important to the BJP in 2024. It will be difficult even for the party, with its efficient and powerful election machinery, and also the biggest political brand in the country, Narendra Modi, to better its 2019 performance. Sunday’s events indicate that the party is keenly aware of this.
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