Since he first took office in 2012, President Vladimir Putin appeared to face the strongest challenge to his rule over Russia so far during the weekend as the head of the Wagner Private Military Company, Yevgeny Prigozhin, suddenly seized control of Rostov-on-Don, one of the main cities in the country’s south, and sent his fighters marching towards Moscow. The move was all the more stunning since Mr Prigozhin, a former petty criminal turned head of a mercenary organisation that has been covertly used by Russia in hot spots in Africa and the Arab world, owes his current standing entirely to Mr Putin. Mr Prigozhin acted after months of bickering with Russia’s military top brass, especially defence minister Sergei Shoigu, over the conduct of operations in Ukraine and contended his actions were aimed at effecting a change at the top of the defence establishment. Wagner, whose ranks include thousands of former prisoners and some of the most battle-hardened fighters in Russia, broke through blockades on highways during their march, leading Mr Putin to warn of the possibility of civil war in an address to the nation. With Wagner fighters 200 kilometres from Moscow, their advance was halted late on Saturday after Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko brokered a truce with Mr Prigozhin.
For now, a charge of armed mutiny was dropped against Mr Prigozhin, who agreed to go to Belarus on the condition that no action would be taken against Wagner fighters. Reports suggest the rebellion may have been triggered by Russia’s decision to bring Wagner under the military command structure. As things stand, Russian military chiefs are unlikely to rely on Wagner forces in Ukraine, given the lack of trust. Despite the Kremlin’s plans to assimilate Wagner fighters who didn’t join the mutiny, it remains to be seen how Russia will deal with such a potent force.
Mr Putin’s aura of invincibility has taken a blow that may be tough to recover from, especially at a time when questions are increasing within Russia about the unpopular war in Ukraine. The rebellion by Mr Prigozhin was shortlived but it raised questions about Mr Putin’s grip on power. Both the war in Ukraine and the ascendance of men such as Mr Prigozhin are of Mr Putin’s making. Despite the isolation of both Russia and Mr Putin in the world, instability within a nuclear-armed State wouldn’t be welcomed in world capitals. Authoritarian States often find it difficult to pull back from their aggressive strategies. It is too early to predict the political demise of Mr Putin, but the crack in his strongman image could encourage a churn.
